It's Time to Dump the UN

Leave it to Mike Huckabee to nail the issue in the video below. In light of last week's circus in New York it's time to dump the UN.

Looking Ahead....

It's way too early to discussing the 2012 Presidential election, but given the ever-increasing buyer's remorse setting in among Americans these days, it's not unreasonable to think about who could potentially be a leading candidate next time around. Kevin McCullough has been spending a few days with Governor Mike Huckabee and likes what he sees. I'm not willing to sign onto Kevin's prediction yet but I'm certainly hoping that he is right.

Prayer, Politics, and Rick Warren

Much has been written about Pastor Rick Warren's invitation to give the invocation at President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration in just a few weeks. Many on the left have been upset about the selection of Pastor Warren because of his stance against homosexual marriage. Some on the right are suggesting that he may be compromising the gospel for the sake of political influence.

Pastor Warren is symbolic of what's happened to evangelicals over the past 30 or so years. The church has forsaken the gospel in favor of gaining political and cultural influence. As a result, principles have been compromised.

If Pastor Warren truly wants to be effective, then he should take Cal Thomas' advice and be more like the prophet Nathan:

If Obama plans on having Warren as a presence in his presidency, Warren should seek to model himself more after Nathan the prophet. Nathan confronted King David over his affair with Bathsheba, whose husband, Uriah the Hittite, David sent to the front lines to ensure he would be killed so that David could have his wife. God sent Nathan to David. Nathan told David a story about a rich man who stole a poor man's lamb rather than take one from his own flock to feed a visitor. Nathan asked David what should happen to such a man. David replied, "that man should surely die." To which Nathan replied, "You are the man." (2 Samuel 12)

Nathan's confrontation led to David's repentance and one of the most beautiful Psalms ever written (Psalm 51). The point is that Nathan did not compromise Truth, but confronted David with what he had done wrong. How many modern preachers would confront a president like that? Probably not many if they wanted to maintain access.

Former Governor Mike Huckabee wrote this in his book Do The Right Thing quoting his mentor James Robison:

The prophets of old were rarely invited back for a return engagement. In fact, most of them were never invited the first time. They came to speak truth to power regardless of the consequences.

Governor Huckabee goes on to note that one can be a politician or a prophet but never both. My hope is that Pastor Warren will take this opportunity to be a prophet and not worry about being invited by President Obama for another speaking engagement.

Finishing What You Start

With John McCain's victory tonight in Wisconsin, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee will undoubtedly receive a renewed barrage of questions about when he's going to drop out of the presidential race. After all, he's trailing McCain by almost 600 delegates. Senator McCain needs to win only about 200 of the remaining delegates in order to get to the magic number of 1,191.

I don't think Huckabee will drop out. He's said many times that until Senator McCain reaches the magic number he's not going to drop out.

To quote Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over."

It's highly unlikely that Huckabee could win enough delegates to deny McCain winning the nomination. But that doesn't mean that he should give up, either.

In fact, Mike Huckabee strikes me as a person who finishes what he starts. Anyone who commits to losing over 100 pounds has to have a firm sense of dedication not only to achieve that goal but to continue to do the things day by day that allow him to keep the weight off.

Mike Huckabee won't win the Republican nomination this year. But he will have shown something far greater: the strength of character to finish what he started.

Eating Crow: Super Tuesday Edition

In the aftermath of the Florida Primary, I suggested that it was time for Governor Mike Huckabee to withdraw from the race.

I was wrong.

Good thing I have a day job.

Following the Huckabee Campaign

Little did we know when we got out of bed this morning that we would end up attending a rally for Mike Huckabee. He stopped by the Tri-Cities Airport in northeast Tennessee and held an event on the eve of Super Tuesday. Chuck and Gena Norris also accompanied him on this stop. The crowd was about 500 strong which is quite surprising given the governor's current standing in the polls.

As I was listening to Governor Huckabee's stump speech I was struck by how well he connected with the audience. He pointed out that most candidates don't pay attention to our area (and they don't - Governor Huckabee is the first to make a campaign stop in the area). I believe the Republican establishment made a grave error in dismissing him as someone who could not win the nomination. I believe he has very solid conservative credentials and would make a fantastic nominee.

He also comes across as someone who has an extremely strong work ethic. Everyone knows by now that he lost over 100 pounds. But another story that he told was the fact that not only was he the first person in his family to graduate from high school but that he finished college in just 2 years and 3 months. He said he didn't finish quickly because he had so much money but because he was poor and had to work his way through college and could not afford to take four years to get his degree.

One of his most fascinating observations was summed up in this line: "People should tell the media who they are going to vote for not the media telling the people who to vote for." In this simple sentence he has hit upon a fundamental truth of this campaign: it is the media who has set the parameters for this race rather than the voters. It will be interesting to see in the coming months what influence, if any, the media has on the course of the campaign.

My other favorite line of his speech has to do with the IRS. He said, "Where I come from when something is broken if it can't be fixed with WD-40 and duct tape it can't be fixed." Indeed, the tax code is so maddeningly complex that it's impossible to see how simply modifying it will do any good. While there are arguments to be made over whether the Fair Tax is the right solution (and I haven't done enough research on it to say whether I totally agree with it) it's fair to say that what we've got now doesn't work.

Now there may be some who ask why I would take the time to take my family to a political rally for a candidate that I suggested withdraw from the race. First of all, it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for our family to witness first hand a presidential campaign rally. Second, I've long thought that Governor Huckabee was the right candidate but that because of the circumstances of this race (namely the abundance of candidates running this year) it would be difficult for him to win. I hope that I am wrong and that he does well enough tomorrow to give him a fighting chance at the nomination. But if the outcome is what the polls suggest, it will probably be time to call it quits if he hopes to have any chance at running again in the future. I hope he will run again because he is just the kind of leader this country needs.

Six Lessons From Florida

Congratulations to Senator John McCain for his victory last night in the Florida Republican Primary. He has now emboldened his position as the front runner for the nomination. While he's not necessarily the person I would want as the nominee, I'll support him if he wins the nomination.

Looking over last night's results, I've observed six things that should be kept in mind as the process moves forward.

1. Polls are increasingly unreliable predictors of election outcomes.

First, we had the fiasco with polls in New Hampshire that predicted a victory for Barack Obama in the Democratic primary. Then in South Carolina, the polls correctly picked Obama as the winner but did not predict his blowout victory over Hillary Clinton. Yesterday, several polls had Mitt Romney winning the Republican primary. While polls are likely to still be around for some time it's clear they are no longer as reliable as they once were.

2. Military voters are an important part of the Republican coalition.

Military voters were a big part of Senator McCain's win in South Carolina and showed themselves to be a potent force yesterday in Florida. In a time of war, military voters are going to naturally gravitate towards the person that they believe is best equipped to lead the country. Military voters probably understand better than the average voter what it takes to be Commander-in-Chief. Because of the Republican party's position on the Global War of Terror they have developed a huge base of support among military voters. They will continue to be an important constituency for Republicans in the future.

3. Personality matters more than policy positions.

Whether we like it or not, voters tend to gravitate for who they like and who they can trust mor than for what the person stands for. I suspect that much of Senator McCain's appeal is the fact that he is perceived as a straight talker who knows what he believes and stands up for his beliefs. He doesn't seem to change his opinions on issues based on which way the political winds are blowing. In a post-Clinton political era this is a hugh asset. I also think one of the reasons that Mitt Romney has not gained as much support is because he is perceived as someone who has changed positions on issues (most notably abortion) and is willing to say anything in order to get elected.

4. Electability becomes the primary issue.

As it becomes clearer who the Democratic nominee will be (and my guess right now is Hillary Clinton will win), Republicans are beginning to think about who is most likely to win the general election. Senator McCain matches up well against both of the possible Democratic nominees and is the one candidate that Democrats fear facing the most. Many Republicans realize that it's crucial that they don't allow the Democrats to win the White House and are willing to support the person who is most likely to win even if they disagree with him on key issues.

5. Money does not guarantee victory.

If this primary had been simply a matter of who had the most money, Mitt Romney would have won hands down because he has so much more to spend than anyone else in the race. As Mike Huckabee proved in Iowa and John McCain proved in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida you can be outspent by huge margins and still win. Money is important but having the most money does not necessarily mean you'll automatically win. Winning depends more on how you campaign then how much you spend.

6. It's time for Mike Huckabee to withdraw.

It's hard for me to write this as Governor Huckabee is the person that I probably am most likely to vote for even though he doesn't stand a chance of winning the nomination. In many ways, I believe he's the best candidate and that the media have done such a hatchet job on his record and his positions that most voters don't realize what a sound conservative he is. But Huckabee has nothing to gain at this point and would only embarass himself further by staying in the race. I thiink he would be better off to withdraw now and save himself for another run at the presidency in the future. It would also demonstrate to voters that he's more willing to put party unity over personal gain.

There's still a long way to go in this race for the nomination. But the time is coming soon when Republicans have to come to grips with the fact that the man who will be their nominee may not be their first choice but he is going to be their choice and that they need to rally around him to help get him elected.

Homeschoolers Help Huckabee In Iowa

Homeschoolers in Iowa are one of the reasons Mike Huckabee is doing so well according to a front page story in today's Washington Post:

ELDORA, Iowa -- Julie Roe, an early believer in Mike Huckabee, worked with
what she had.

With no buttons, no yard signs and no glossy literature from his nearly invisible Iowa campaign, she took a pair of scissors and cut out a photograph of the former Arkansas governor. She pasted it on a piece of paper, scribbled down some of his positions, made copies and launched the Huckabee for President campaign in rural Hardin County.

Roe contacted friends in her home-schooling network and bought a newspaper advertisement for $38. She spread the word in the grocery store and the church foyer: "I would tell them about Mike Huckabee and they would say, 'Who's Mike Huckleberry?' I'd say, 'No, no, no, it's Huckabee.' "

Huckabee's name is no longer a mystery to Iowa's Republican voters, in large part because of an extensive network of home-schoolers like Roe who have helped lift his underfunded campaign from obscurity to the front of a crowded field. Opinion polls show that his haphazard approach is trumping the studied strategy of Mitt Romney, who invested millions only to be shunned by many religious conservatives such as Roe, who see the former Baptist preacher from Hope, Ark., as their champion.

While early attention focused on Romney and other better-known and better-funded opponents, home-schoolers rallied to Huckabee's cause, attracted by his faith, his politics and his decision to appoint a home-school proponent to the Arkansas board of education. They tapped a web of community and church
groups that share common conservative interests, blasting them with e-mails and
passing along the word about Huckabee in social settings.

It was the endorsement by prominent national home-school advocate Michael Farris that helped propel Huckabee to a surprising second-place finish in the Iowa straw poll in August. And it was the twin sons of a home-school advocate in Oregon who helped put Huckabee in touch with television tough guy Chuck Norris, who appeared alongside him in an attention-getting TV spot and on the campaign trail.

Home-schoolers could also prove to be a powerful force on caucus night. By one estimate, about 9,000 Iowa children are home-schooled. Their parents could form a sizable portion of the 80,000 or so Republicans expected to show up on Jan. 3.

Huckabee's apparent success has been a surprise to many and there's no doubt from this article that homeschoolers are an integral part of his success not so much because of their educational choices but because they rely so much on word-of mouth to share information. Whether this campaign tactic leads to success on January 3rd remains to be seen. But if it does, it could fundamentally change poitical campaigns to focus more on word-of mouth communication than more traditional forms of political advertising.

Huckabee's Moment?

Mike Huckabee's second place finish in the Iowa straw poll has given him a boost in both the polls and the media. But can Huckabee build on this momentum to move himself into the GOP's top tier? National Review's Jim Geraghty thinks there is a chance he could:

Suppose you’re an undecided Republican voter, with mixed feelings about the big-name Republican presidential candidates. You respect John McCain, but he doesn’t look like a viable option — which is just as well since he bugged you with his crusade for speech-limiting campaign finance reform, and lost you with the immigration deal with Ted Kennedy.

Mitt Romney’s wowed you in the debates, but you can’t forget that while you agree with all his positions, he had strikingly different ones not too long ago. And you would prefer a nominee who has won more than just one political race in his life.

You love Rudy Giuliani’s crime-fighting record and 9/11 leadership, but the thought of a non-pro-life Republican nominee gives you pause, and the messy home life troubles you a bit.

You were very excited about Fred Thompson, and nearly fainted with anticipation when you saw his smackdown of Michael Moore. But lately you feel like you’re playing a character in Waiting for Godot, and you’re wondering if he got lost somewhere on the way to the announcement.

Those still shopping for a candidate could do a lot worse than former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who with the second-place finish in Ames is not merely now a “top tier” candidate, as Newt Gingrich recently declared, but arguably belongs in the middle of that first tier.

Huckabee has several things going for him. He's a successful former governor (Arkansas). He's striking the right tone in his responses to quetions on foreign policy. He has solid conservative issues that will give him appeal beyond the Republican base. He's also got a great sense of humor that has served him well in the debates.

His biggest negative has been that up until now he's been in the second tier among GOP candidates. But with the increased media attention after his strong showing in Iowa more voters may begin paying attention to him. That could dramatically change the face of a race that was already starting to narrow down to two or three candidates.